Ui … Ui … Os
quatro do Visegrád e a questão dos refugiados … mais … a Independência da Catalunha
… muitos desafios aguardam Merkel e
Macron …
OVOODOCORVO
7 takeaways from Catalonia’s
insurrection day
Catalan parliament approves October 1
independence vote.
By DIEGO
TORRES 9/7/17, 1:51 AM CET Updated
9/7/17, 10:24 AM CET
MADRID — Catalan separatists moved from words to deeds
Wednesday when the regional cabinet of Carles Puigdemont signed a decree
calling a self-determination referendum for October 1 and the secessionist
majority of the Catalan legislative chamber approved a bill paving the way for
the vote.
The move culminates a years-long build up of the Catalan
secessionist movement, which a decade ago barely gathered the support of 15
percent of Catalans, and places the regional government and the legislature in
open defiance of Spain’s constitution and the conservative government of Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy.
The stage is set for one of the gravest political crises
Spain has faced in its 40-year-long recent democratic history.
“Catalonia will decide its own future on October 1,”
Puigdemont said in a speech after signing the decree. “No one has the authority
nor the power to seize our right to decide.”
After approving the bill, secessionist legislators sang Els
Segadors, the Catalan anthem. Pro-unity lawmakers had abandoned the hall in
protest before the vote.
Rajoy’s cabinet took the first legal steps to tackle the
independence push before the vote took place by challenging in the
Constitutional Court the decision by the bureau of the Catalan assembly to go
ahead with the processing of the bill and by asking the tribunal to act against
Carme Forcadell, the president of the Catalan chamber. The public prosecutor
also announced a criminal action against the five lawmakers who made the
decision, including Forcadell. Further legal action challenging the referendum
law and Puigdemont’s decree calling the vote is expected Thursday.
“We’re going to defend the constitution, democracy and
liberties,” Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the deputy prime minister, told
reporters in the afternoon, adding the Catalan chamber’s session debating the
bill was “embarrassing” and “a kick to democracy.”
Here are seven takeaways from Catalonia’s insurrection day.
1. There may not be a vote
Madrid and the Spanish judiciary have enough tools to
prevent a vote, which will most likely be declared unconstitutional by the
courts. Rajoy gave a hint Wednesday on how he intends to proceed: challenging
all legal steps in the courts and targeting the top officials involved. The
Constitutional Court has powers to urge officials to comply with its judicial
decisions and suspend them from office if they refuse to do so. Other measures
could include the seizure of some competencies of the regional executive.
Rajoy is under increasing pressure from some conservatives
to teach Catalan separatists a lesson, but a harsh response could lead to
increased support for independence in Catalonia. Madrid may opt for a softer
approach, avoiding the most drastic measures and tolerating a de facto vote —
similar to the informal ballot on independence that took place in 2014 — while
refusing to accept its legitimacy and ignoring its results.
2. Puigdemont in the firing line
Whatever the outcome, Madrid and the Spanish courts are
determined to make Catalan officials pay for challenging the country’s unity.
While Puigdemont has vowed to go to prison for the sake of
independence if necessary, Catalan officials are more likely to face being
banned from public office and fines. That was the case for former Catalan
President Artur Mas and those responsible for organizing the 2014 informal vote
on secession, who were found guilty of disobeying court orders.
Spain’s Court of Auditors on Tuesday hinted what’s to come
for Puigdemont and his allies when it demanded Mas and other organizers of the
2014 vote post a €5.1 million bail for the public funds used in organizing the
2014 ballot.
3. A common unionist front emerges
The leader of the main opposition Socialists, Pedro Sánchez,
and the head of the liberal Ciudadanos party, Albert Rivera, have publicly
offered their support to Rajoy in order to maintain the rule of law in the face
of the Catalan challenge. Together with the PM’s Popular Party, the common
unionist front adds up to around 73 percent of lawmakers in the Spanish
parliament and 39 percent of the seats in the Catalan regional chamber. Rajoy,
Sánchez and Rivera exchanged calls this week and plan to meet Thursday.
Whereas Rajoy’s minority government can count on the support
of a majority of the opposition, slight differences have surfaced in how each
party wants to tackle the issue. Rivera, for instance, asked Rajoy not to
tolerate another informal vote on independence like the one in 2014. Sánchez,
on the other hand, said Wednesday in a radio interview the issue shouldn’t be
over dramatized.
“They call it a referendum but it’s not a referendum,”
Sánchez said.
4. Propaganda is key
Both sides are waging a merciless propaganda war in which
facts are systematically spun, no topic is off-limits — not even the terrorist
attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils last month — and those who attempt to stay on
the fence are publicly shamed.
At stake is how to portray the whole conflict at the
Catalan, Spanish and international level. Pro-independence forces say Spain is
an authoritarian country that refuses to allow Catalans to express their
democratic will at the ballot box. The Spanish government labels separatists
fanatics who despise democracy and the rule of law.
While the Catalan government has sought and failed to obtain
meaningful backing from foreign governments, it has proven skilful at making
its voice heard in the foreign media. The public relations war is only likely
to increase in the run up to October 1, with both sides attempting to pin the
blame on the other.
5. A Catalan Maidan could backfire
One of the most delicate matters is whether the current
conflict could escalate to a civil disobedience campaign in the streets of
Catalonia, mirroring the 2014 Ukrainian revolution.
“If there was a government offensive to remove the ballot
boxes, then obviously we will mobilize the citizens to prevent that from
happening,” Marta Rovira, the number two of the Catalan Republican Left —
Puigdemont’s coalition partner — told reporters Sunday.
Such a move would obviously attract international attention,
fulfilling one of the aims of Puigdemont and his allies, but it may be a
double-edged sword that could backfire against the separatists.
Some independence supporters have long advocated for civil
disobedience — namely the radical-left Popular Unity Candidacy, the junior
partner of the secessionist alliance. A significant portion of independence
supporters, however, are middle-class moderates, who may be reluctant to join
such actions or even drop support for the cause if things get out of control.
Much attention will be paid on Monday to the Diada, or
Catalan national day, a celebration when millions have rallied in support of
independence in previous years, for hints of how the conflict may play out in
the streets.
6. It’s a numbers game
If the referendum does go ahead, much will depend on how
many people actually vote. Catalan unionists are largely expected to abstain.
Pro-independence forces have vowed the referendum will be binding regardless of
turnout, but it’s clear low participation would weaken their leverage.
Support for Catalan independence has fallen in recent polls
from a peak in 2013. Madrid was optimistic the country’s current economic
revival could reduce the movement to a more manageable level — the economic
crisis was one of the key drivers of the Catalan independence push. Any misstep
in the current crisis could blow up the equation.
The latest research from the Catalan government-funded
Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió found 48 percent of citizens wanted a referendum
regardless of the opposition of the Spanish government, while 23.4 percent
wanted a vote only with a green light from Madrid. In the same poll, 41.1
percent supported secession, while 49.4 percent opposed.
7. The headache won’t end October 1
Whether the vote takes place on October 1 or not, the day
after will prove problematic for Spain. The Catalan government and the
secessionist majority of the regional chamber have rebelled against the
principle of Spanish national sovereignty, upheld by the country’s constitution
and supported by a majority of Spanish political forces. A significant
compromise would be needed for both sides to find a negotiated solution.
Puigdemont told POLITICO in July a proposal without
independence, which secures Catalan competencies and addresses complaints about
language, finances, infrastructure and education, would obtain widespread
support in Catalonia.
The Socialists’ Sánchez proposed a commission in Congress to
explore potential solutions and has obtained Rajoy’s backing for the initiative
— but significantly not that the support of Catalan independence forces. Even
if it gets going, such a commission will have to overcome massive political
difference both between pro- and anti- independence supporters and among the
forces defending the unity of the country.
Authors:
Diego Torres
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