Tensions
Escalate Between Berlin and Erdogan
Turkey's
hardline approach to German journalist Deniz Yücel has created
considerable pressure for the government in Berlin, with Erdogan's
statements over the weekend further exacerbating the situation.
Still, the Turkish leader isn't as strong as he appears to be.
By Maximilian Popp,
Fidelius Schmid and Christoph Schult
March 07, 2017
06:21 PM
The discussion in
the presidential palace in Ankara lasted longer than planned. Angela
Merkel spent more than two hours in early February speaking to
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, urging him to adhere to civil
liberties and democracy and also calling upon him to respect the
division of powers.
Finally, the
chancellor addressed the case of Deniz Yücel, a correspondent with
the conservative daily Die Welt who had fled the Turkish authorities
and took refuge on the property of the summer residence of the German
ambassador in Istanbul, where he holed up for the next five weeks.
But the chancellor's
positive words about the journalist bore little fruit. When Yücel
ultimately headed to police headquarters in Istanbul around two weeks
later to turn himself in voluntarily, the agency head seemed
well-informed. The police chief greeted the correspondent by saying
the German chancellor had taken great interest in him.
The arrest of the
German-Turkish journalist marks a new nadir in the already deeply
unsettled relations between Berlin and Ankara. Even as the chancellor
spoke of a "bitter" development and caravans of cars drove
through Hamburg and Berlin bearing "Free Deniz" protest
signs, those close to Erdogan defended what they claimed to be an
independent decision made by the Turkish judiciary. Ultimately,
German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel requested a meeting with the
Turkish ambassador at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin and spoke of one
of the "biggest tests" yet seen in German-Turkish
relations.
The German
government finds itself in a tight spot. It doesn't want to lose
Turkey as a Middle East ally, but it must also respond to the growing
outrage among the German populace over a Turkish president who is in
the process of turning his country into a dictatorship, one who has
ordered organizations aligned with the government in Ankara to spy on
people in Germany and who has now gone even further by cracking down
on a German reporter who doesn't appear to have done anything other
than to report critically on the situation in the country. Cem
Özdemir, who heads Germany's Green Party, says Erdogan believes he
has "Mrs. Merkel wrapped around his little finger because of the
refugee pact."
Sliding into
Dictatorship
With only a few
weeks to go before Erdogan holds a constitutional referendum that
would restructure the country into a de facto autocracy, the call for
consequences is becoming louder in Germany. From conservative
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) national executive member Jens Spahn
to center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) foreign policy expert
Niels Annan to conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) head Horst
Seehofer, a cross party coalition is growing that seeks to prevent
planned events in Germany, with its large population of Turkish
citizens, by Erdogan and other top government officials to promote
the constitutional reform.
The government,
however, is concerned that if it bans the events, it might anger the
Turkish population in Germany. Last week, officials sought to pass
the buck, with officials in Berlin saying it was the job of the
individual states to decide whether to ban events and not the federal
government. But state officials in North Rhine-Westphalia claimed it
was "the federal government's job."
On Thursday, one
municipality acted on its own. In Gaggenau, located in the state of
Baden-Württemberg, officials canceled a planned appearance by
Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag, claiming that the event hall
would not be able to handle the number of people expected. At around
the same time, officials in Cologne canceled a planned appearance by
the Turkish economics minister, forcing him to hold his speech in a
different city. It was, in short, mayors who began making the tough
decisions that politicians at the state and federal level either
couldn't -- or didn't want to -- make.
The Turkish
government responded by officially summoning the German ambassador to
the Foreign Ministry in Ankara, a diplomatic affront that further
poisoned relations.
Intense Criticism of
Erdogan
Then, a new low was
reached on Sunday when Erdogan, speaking in Istanbul, said that
German actions "do not differ from the earlier Nazi practices."
The Turkish leader also described journalist Yücel as a "terrorist."
Merkel angrily
dismissed the allegation on Monday. "One seriously cannot even
comment on such misplaced comments," she said, adding that
statements minimizing the suffering caused by the crimes of the
National Socialists during the Holocaust are unjustifiable. Even as
she emphasized that there is much connecting Germany and Turkey, she
added that there are "profound differences of opinion"
between the two countries on issues like "freedoms of opinion
and the press" that "are now in clear view."
Following Erdogan's
outburst, the city of Hamburg this week canceled an event planned for
Tuesday night with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu, citing
fire safety concerns.
But it's not just
Berlin that finds itself in a difficult spot. Erdogan isn't in nearly
as strong a position as it might seem. At the moment, Erdogan is
having to control collateral damage caused by his repressive policies
while at the same time, he is facing a difficult fight to ensure that
his reform plans are not rejected by Turkish voters.
That fight was on
full display a week ago Saturday at a campaign event held in a sports
arena in Ankara. Mayors, members of parliament, government ministers
and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim all appeared onstage in front of
40,000 guests to launch the "Yes on the Referendum on the
Presidential System" campaign. A portrait of Erdogan had been
hung from the ceiling with the words "Evet," Turkish for
"yes."
Yet despite the
meticulous planning, the arena didn't fill with the kind of euphoria
generally seen at rallies in support of Erdogan's Justice and
Development (AKP) party. The crowd monotonously waved flags and
clapped obligingly during Yildirim's speech. Leading AKP heavyweights
like former President Abdullah Gül chose not to attend the event.
A Country in Crisis
AKP is experiencing
similar sentiment almost all across Turkey. The party is having a
tough time convincing the people of the necessity of a constitutional
reform that would place virtually all state responsibility under the
control of the president. Erdogan, who until recently seemed
all-powerful, suddenly has reason to fear he won't win the April 16
referendum.
The polls are
fluctuating, with some showing the "no" camp ahead in
February -- in some instances with a 10 percentage point lead. More
unsettling for Erdogan is a poll taken by the institute Akam showing
that more than one-third of AKP supporters plan to vote "no"
in the referendum.
It has become almost
impossible for the government to hide the crisis facing the country.
Since the July 15, 2016, coup attempt, Erdogan has suspended close to
130,000 government employees from their positions and around 46,000
people have been arrested on suspicions of assisting or participating
in the coup. The purge has left parts of the government apparatus
paralyzed. Classes have been canceled at schools and universities
because of a lack of teachers and professors. The number of
casualties in the military deployment in Syria is also growing. The
country is routinely shaken by terrorist attacks perpetrated by Kurds
or Islamist terrorists. On new year's eve alone, a terrorist strike
on the Istanbul nightclub Reina left 39 people dead.
The unrest in the
country has long since begun having an impact on the economy. Though
it flourished for many years under Erdogan, the Turkish economy
shrank by 1.8 percent during the third quarter of 2016 relative to
the same period the previous year. Tourism revenues in the country
have plummeted by one-third and unemployment has risen to a
seven-year high.
Even a majority of
AKP voters feels that the situation in their country has deteriorated
since the last parliamentary election in November 2015, according to
one poll. Two-thirds of those surveyed said that Turkey is
experiencing economic difficulty.
The president, in
short, is under pressure. Which is why, says Turkish opposition
politician Mithat Sancar, the Yücel case is a welcome gift. It
enables Erdogan to distract attention from his own weaknesses and
instead present himself the way he most likes to do: as the
unchallenged leader who, if need be, can also pick a fight with the
West.
A German Role in
Shaping Turkey's Future
And there's one
group of voters that is particularly receptive to Erdogan's
blustering: Turks living in Germany. Around 3 million people with
Turkish roots live here, with half of them possessing Turkish
passports and the right to vote back home. After Istanbul, Ankara and
Izmir, Germany is Turkey's fourth largest electoral constituency.
For years, Turkish
governments paid little attention to their compatriots living abroad.
"We were foreign currency procurers," says Fatih Zingal, a
member of the board of the Union of European-Turkish Democrats
(UETD), an AKP lobby group in Germany. "We sent money back home
and that was it."
That situation has
changed dramatically under Erdogan. In 2010, the government created
the Presidency for Turks Abroad (YTP), an agency with 300 employees
who are responsible for maintaining contact with the approximately 4
million Turkish citizens living abroad. "Wherever our fellow
citizens are, we are there too," the office promises.
Among Turks living
abroad, Erdogan is arguably more popular than any Turkish leader who
preceded him. During the parliamentary election in fall 2015, 60
percent of Turkish voters living in Germany voted for AKP, 10
percentage points higher than inside Turkey. Erdogan will be relying
on those overseas voters to pass his referendum in April. Current
forecasts indicate that the race will be tight, meaning the outcome
could ultimately be decided by just a few tens of thousands of votes.
"Turkey's future will be partly decided in Germany," says
opposition politician Sancar.
Are Merkel's Hands
Ties?
So far, the Turkish
government hasn't made an official request in Berlin for permission
for a visit by Erdogan. Inside the AKP, however, the date of March 18
has been circulating. And inside the German Foreign Ministry,
officials assume that request is coming soon.
Last week, sources
in both the Chancellery and the Foreign Ministry said it would be
nearly impossible for them to reject such a visit. After all, they
would also likely allow Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese
President Xi Jinping to speak to their compatriots in Germany.
Furthermore, the German government is eager to avoid accusations of
attempting to interfere in the campaign. Particularly at a time when
Turkey is trampling on press and speech freedoms, it is necessary to
show even more magnanimity to those who think differently, a source
in the German Foreign Ministry said.
That may sound
noble, but it's only part of the truth. The German government is also
reliant on Turkey in the battle against Islamic State and for finding
a solution to the Syria conflict. An even greater concern, however,
is that an irritated Erdogan could revoke his country's refugee deal
with Europe. A new wave of migrants at the start of the German
federal election campaign certainly wouldn't help Merkel's
re-election bid.
That might in part
explain Merkel's apparent indifference in recent months to the
downfall of democracy witnessed in Turkey. Now, however, she is
facing increasing calls to stand up to the Ankara despot.
But what might the
government do if it shies away even from preventing Erdogan from
making a public appearance in Germany? One option is economic aid.
Late last month, Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek spoke to his
German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble during a visit to Germany about
support for the embattled Turkish economy.
But senior officials
from the Finance, Economic and Foreign Ministries in Berlin are all
in agreement that no additional aid should be provided until after
the Turkish referendum.
The German
government also has some leverage in the negotiations over a
deepening of the customs union. Berlin could demand concessions from
Ankara on human rights in exchange for better access to the European
market.
At the same time,
officials in Berlin are welcoming steps by German prosecutors to
intensify their actions against Erdogan's forces in Germany. In
mid-February, investigators searched the apartments of four imams
linked with Ditib, a Turkish-Islamist umbrella organization in the
country, who are suspected of having collected information about
supporters of Islamist preacher Fethullah Gülen in their religious
communities for Diyanet, the Turkish religious authority. Gülen has
been blamed by Erdogan's government for the coup attempt. The
investigators didn't find the men, however, because they had
apparently already left to Turkey. The imams at Ditib's mosques in
Germany are sent and paid for by Diyanet.
Fears Conflict Could
Spread to Germany
The government in
Berlin fears that the conflict in Turkey could at some point spread
to Germany. The federal interior minister as well as his counterparts
at the state level are determined to more closely monitor Erdogan's
fifth column and to not provide the Turkish organizations with as
much leeway as they have in the past. At the same time, Berlin is
seeking to develop a new strategy -- one that would make clear that
it will not allow itself to be blackmailed by Ankara but at the same
time does not unnecessarily escalate the situation with a difficult
partner.
What's also clear is
that the sharper the tone gets between the two governments, the
smaller the chances are of accomplishing anything in the Yücel case.
Because officials in Ankara consider the German-Turkish journalist to
be a Turkish citizen, the German Embassy is unable to provide him
with consular assistance. The Foreign Ministry in Berlin has been
warning dual citizens of that risk on its travel advisory website
since last summer. Yücel was only safe for as long as he was hiding
in the summer home of the German ambassador in northern Istanbul.
Under the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, representatives
of the host nation are forbidden from entering, searching or carrying
out an arrest on embassy property without the permission of the head
of the mission.
The website of the
Germany Embassy states that the summer residence is used to
facilitate "German-Turkish dialogue," but the fact that the
German ambassador provided Yücel with temporary asylum is unlikely
to have promoted dialogue between the two countries.
Arresting Yücel
didn't either.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário