Populist
Italian marriage to give Brussels heartburn
5Star
Movement may join forces with the far-right Northern League to
govern.
By GIADA
ZAMPANO 3/28/17, 4:02 AM CET Updated 3/28/17, 7:31 AM CET
Beppe Grillo's 5Star
Movement may have to make a choice between sticking to its principles
and remaining in the opposition, or forming an alliance with a
like-minded party
ROME — Italy’s
next government could see a populist alliance between the 5Star
Movement and the Northern League that if consummated would turn
Italian and European politics on their heads.
This joining of
forces long seemed unthinkable (and, for many, unpalatable). But the
rise of the two parties in the polls — and the disintegration of
mainstream forces — increases the odds of a government in Rome
that, among more unconventional steps, promises to take the country
out of the eurozone.
When Italians go to
the polls, no later than early 2018, the 5Stars could well win the
vote but fail to secure a big enough majority to govern. The party
founded by comedian Beppe Grillo had long pledged to rule only on its
own and shun coalitions in favor of staying in the opposition.
This revolutionary
principle is being reconsidered. According to top-level insiders, the
5Stars’ leadership is already working on a Plan B in case it lacks
the votes, as is likely, to govern by itself. Such a plan, partially
confirmed in public comments by some lawmakers, would include a
parliamentary alliance with the anti-immigrant Northern League and
other smaller populist parties, such as the far-right Brothers of
Italy.
“We want to run
alone at the next elections, as we always did, and we target a 40
percent win, which would allow us to obtain the mandate to form a new
government,” Alessandro Di Battista, one of the leaders of the
movement, told POLITICO.
“If that doesn’t
happen, and we get less than 40 percent of the vote, we’ll be ready
to explain our platform in parliament and submit it to all the other
parties. Then it will be their responsibility to say Yes or No to a
government led by the 5Stars.”
The leaders of the
5Stars insist they would reject any old-school backroom deal or
trading of political seats in exchange for parliamentary backing.
A populist triumph
in Italy would be as shocking to the European establishment as any
outcome in this year of elections, including a victory by Marine Le
Pen in France this spring. Between them, the 5Stars and Northern
League back a cocktail of policies considered anathema by Brussels.
“The plan [for a
populist alliance] is there and it’s being discussed in the
parliament’s corridors,” said a person familiar with the
situation. “What remains to be seen is how and if it’s going to
work once in place, and what the junior partners will ask in exchange
for their parliamentary support to a possible 5Star government.”
The leaders of the
5Stars insist they would reject any old-school backroom deal or
trading of political seats in exchange for parliamentary backing.
“That’s old
politics and we just want to erase it,” said Luigi Di Maio, the
30-year-old deputy leader of the lower house and a possible 5Star
prime ministerial candidate. “Any alliance will be based on our
program and will be done in parliament, where the votes are.”
If the coalition
call comes, the Northern League, led by the outspoken and social
media-savvy Matteo Salvini, is ready to at least consider it — as
long as any potential suitor is ready to back his battle against “a
disastrous European Union and its harmful policies,” which he says
have led Italy toward poverty and political irrelevance.
Salvini has
transformed the League from a struggling separatist party into a
national political force, along the lines of Le Pen’s National
Front, hammering home three messages: no euro, no immigrants, and
lower taxes.
On some grounds, a
5Star-Northern League alliance seems a natural fit. Both rage against
Italy’s elite and European bureaucracy, and there is growing
convergence between the 5Stars’ anti-euro, anti-globalization
stance and that of the Northern League.
Salvini and 5Star
founder Grillo even share a fondness for Russia’s Vladimir Putin
and U.S. President Donald Trump.
But it would be a
risky marriage for both parties, who would have to overcome their
remaining differences and form a government strong enough to produce
a bold and realistic agenda, able to address the needs of a country
mired in debt, with moribund growth and stark social divisions.
“We remain open to
dialogue, but I still see many differences between us and the
5Stars,” Salvini said. “Obviously, if they change their minds and
prove to be interested in reaching a compromise, we are here, ready
to listen.”
However, Salvini has
concerns. “We have completely different views on how to defend our
borders from the immigrants’ wave. Not to mention labor and fiscal
policies: The 5Stars want social handouts for people who don’t
work. We want to cut taxes for companies that invest in hiring
workers. That’s a big difference.”
On the up
At Italy’s 2013
general election, the 5Stars came from nowhere to become the second
most popular party. Despite a few ups and downs along the way, its
poll ratings have remained steady at around 30 percent, generally
ahead of a divided center-right and, more recently, slightly ahead of
the center-left Democratic Party (PD) of former premier Matteo Renzi.
According to a
recent Ipsos poll, the movement is polling at a record high of 32.3
percent — a 5 percentage point lead over the PD. That’s likely in
part down to the role the 5Stars played in the success of the No
campaign ahead of a constitutional referendum last year that cost
Renzi his job. In the Ipsos poll, the Northern League remained steady
at around 13 percent, well up on the meager 4 percent it scored in
the 2013 elections.
If a 5Star election
win is a concern for many, fears of a 5Star-Northern League deal are
even greater.
Many European
partners, however, fear that a 5Star election win would put Italy’s
economic and political stability at risk because of its lack of
experience and unclear agenda — and their fears haven’t been
assuaged by the 5Stars’ shaky management of Rome since Virginia
Raggi won mayoral elections last June. Raggi has been rocked by
corruption scandals and though the 5Star leadership has so far
defended the mayor, it knows that failure in the capital doesn’t
bode well for its chances of governing nationally.
That’s not the
only concern. Critics and supporters note that Grillo’s movement
has been pushing an increasingly inconsistent political platform of
late: it has backtracked from wanting to take Italy out of the EU and
even tried (unsuccessfully) to forge an alliance in the European
Parliament with the Liberal group of arch-federalist Guy Verhofstadt
— leaving it to continue its European alliance with Nigel Farage’s
UKIP.
“The lack of
clarity and political coherence, which has proved successful for the
5Stars as a pure protest movement, now risks undermining their
ambitions to govern, as their traditional electorate resist the need
for transforming what was an exceptional protest group into a real
party, fit for office,” said Massimiliano Panarari, a professor at
Rome’s LUISS University
If a 5Star election
win is a concern for many, fears of a 5Star-Northern League deal are
even greater.
The two parties
would face “immediate contrasts,” said Panarari. “But above
all, they would have to quickly tackle the need to transform their
radical and often impracticable plans into realistic economic and
social policies, able to push Italy out of one of its deepest
crisis.”
One obvious area of
division is membership of the single currency. The Northern League
has dropped calls for a referendum on exiting the eurozone, saying
such a move would have no constitutional relevance, while the 5Stars
maintain their long-standing pledge to hold an anti-euro referendum.
They are, however,
slightly closer on immigration than they were, with the 5Stars taking
a much harder stance of late. Italy “can’t become Europe’s
refugee camp,” 5Star lawmaker Sergio Battelli said Thursday,
calling for EU sanctions against countries that refuse to accept
refugees, but also for bilateral agreements to speed-up economic
migrants’ repatriations.
The 5Stars have had
great success attracting disaffected voters from both right and left.
Now, one of the leading anti-establishment forces in Europe has to
preserve and widen its electoral base as it fights to become a
governing force — a process that often leads to painful compromises
and hard electoral choices.
According to Roberto
D’Alimonte, politics professor at Florence University, “without a
broad alliance among the main parties, either on the left or on the
right side, the result at the next elections will be just chaos.”
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