3
biggest Dutch election myths
If
you think this week’s vote is all about Geert Wilders, populism and
the EU, think again.
By NAOMI
O'LEARY 3/13/17, 4:30 AM CET Updated 3/13/17, 8:01 AM CET
AMSTERDAM — As
Dutch voters go to the polls this week, one thing is clear: There is
a gulf between how the election is seen abroad and the view within
the country. Whereas foreign observers see a yet another big test of
the postwar political order in Europe, for the Dutch, the vote is
much less dramatic.
Rather than being a
winner-takes-all contest with a clear outcome like the Brexit vote or
the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, this is a vote with 28
parties on the ballot, several of which will likely need to enter a
coalition to rule — a disadvantage for populist firebrand Geert
Wilders who looms large internationally but who at home has found it
harder to capture the spotlight.
This year, the
spectrum of political parties is even more splintered than usual. At
the moment, no single party has more than 20 percent in an average of
polls. The parties that dominated in the past struggle to command
broad support, while a range of small parties target specific chunks
of the electorate. There is one party for people aged over 50,
another for animals, and even one for non-voters.
Yet even with such a
colorful range of parties to choose from, the tone of the debate has
largely been measured. The election has not developed into a clear
contest between the two biggest parties, like campaigns in the past.
“There will be a
multicoalition government. Three, four, many even five parties. It’s
exciting from a nerdy political point of view” — Jan Vos, Labour
Party lawmaker
“Everyone is
waiting for the fireworks,” said Koen Vossen, a political scientist
at Radboud University Nijmegen. “They’re all playing defensively.
It’s like a football match where it’s nil-nil.”
In advance of the
March 15 election, here is a primer on some of the most common
misconceptions.
1. A vote about the
EU
Though Brexit and
Nexit are often spoken of in the same breath, the U.K. referendum to
leave the EU has hardly fueled the Euroskeptic movement in the
Netherlands. If anything, it has had the opposite effect as the Dutch
observe how the British experiment plays out.
Following the U.K.
vote in June, the level of support for leaving the EU among Dutch
voters dropped, according to government think tank SCP, and debate
about Nexit has largely died down. The only major party in favor of
leaving the EU, Wilders’ Freedom Party, has toned down its
Brussels-bashing compared with the last election and focused instead
on the issues of migration and culture.
That doesn’t mean
the Dutch are entirely sanguine about the EU and there has been a
debate about how the Union should be reformed. Prime Minister Mark
Rutte’s conservative-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and
Democracy (VVD) party wants to put a brake on any further enlargement
of the EU club to include new members and limit Brussels’ powers.
On the left, the Greens want an EU that is stronger but more
democratic.
2. A vote about
Wilders
Wilders, a far-right
nationalist politician who has long argued against immigration and
Islam, is the leading story internationally.
In the Netherlands?
Not so much.
For a variety of
reasons — security, a lack of funds, a fight with television
producers — Wilders has been notably absent from the campaign
trail.
In February, Wilders
canceled all public appearances after an officer tasked with
protecting him reportedly leaked information about his whereabouts to
a Moroccan criminal gang. And Wilders pulled out of a television
debate last month in anger after the broadcaster RTL interviewed his
brother, Paul, who has been critical of him.
In the past, Wilders
has restricted his appearances as a tactic to create excitement when
he does appear and his absence may be intended to build interest in a
final debate between Wilders and Rutte two nights before the vote.
But Vossen, an
expert on the Freedom Party, says there could be a simpler
explanation. “Where the other parties have invested thousands in a
campaign with professional ads, a whole strategy, and a whole
professional bureau of consultants that work for them, Wilders really
has nothing,” Vossen said. “He doesn’t have any money, his
personnel is maybe 50 people in the whole country. It’s not much.
Maybe there are a few hundred people at most who are willing to put
up posters.”
Whatever the reason,
Wilders’ subtle campaign has not helped him in the polls: In the
past month, his support has dropped from 17 percent to 13.5 percent
in the Peilingwijzer average of polls.
3. A populist
uprising
The Dutch election
is often spoken of in the context of two recent political upheavals:
Brexit and the election of Trump.
But don’t expect a
dramatic populist overturn of the established order in the
Netherlands. Not one party currently commands more than 17 percent
support.
If the polls hold
true, as many as five parties will have to come together to reach the
76 seats needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.
Wilders campaigns on
March 8 in Breda | Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images
Geert Wilders
campaigns on March 8 in Breda | Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images
Wilders’,
currently forecast to win between 19 and 23 seats, is unlikely to be
one of them, given that he’s deeply unpopular with the other
political leaders, having insulted them and included apparently
unconstitutional promises such as banning the Koran in his election
program.
“We don’t know
who is going to win,” said Jan Vos, a lawmaker with the center-left
Labour Party. “There will be a multi-coalition government. Three,
four, many even five parties. It’s exciting from a nerdy political
point of view.”
Everything could
change on election day. The Dutch are notorious for making up their
minds late.
André Krouwel, a
political scientist at the Free University of Amsterdam, said the
breakdown of how the 150 seats in the lower house will be allocated
will remain unclear right up to the election.
“Until the last
day even up to 20 percent are still undecided. Even on the way to the
polling booth, 3 percent still decide there,” Krouwel said. “About
60 seats could be uncertain.”
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