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Costa
"confundiu os críticos" e superou as expectativas, avalia
o Financial Times
Num
rescaldo do primeiro ano do Governo socialista, o jornal britânico
diz que, apesar de todos os receios, Costa atingiu níveis de
popularidade que outros líderes europeus "apenas podem sonhar".
PÚBLICO 2 de
Janeiro de 2017, 18:41
“Um ano depois,
António Costa regista níveis de popularidade que outros líderes de
centro-esquerda na Europa apenas podem sonhar”. Esta é uma das
conclusões do Financial Times (FT) em relação ao primeiro ano de
governação do PS, afirmando que a solução governativa em Portugal
que tomou posse em Novembro de 2015 superou todas as expectativas.
O artigo do jornal
britânico, assinado pelo correspondente em Lisboa, o jornalista
Peter Wise, parte de declarações de Pedro Passos Coelho, quando o
presidente social-democrata falou de “uma casa em chamas”, para
afirmar que, até agora, “não houve fogo” e que a “sua [de
António Costa] aliança anti-austeridade” manteve-se “firme”.
Isto apesar do cepticismo do líder da oposição, dos credores
internacionais, dos mercados financeiros e das agências de rating.
Passos defende
abordagem "realista" e insiste em estratégia de médio e
longo prazo
Estas dúvidas em
torno de Costa centram-se, segundo o FT, principalmente no modesto
crescimento económico que é “muito pouco para tornar sustentável
a dívida pública em excesso de 130% do PIB”, e a fragilidade do
sector bancário. Porém, o primeiro-ministro português tem
“indubitavelmente registado um desempenho que superou as previsões
iniciais para o seu Governo de minoria socialista, que depende dos
votos parlamentares dos radicais do Bloco de Esquerda e da linha dura
do Partido Comunista”.
E para a superação
destas expectativas contribuiu, recorda o diário financeiro, a
aprovação de dois Orçamentos do Estado por Bruxelas e o facto de
ter evitado sanções da Comissão Europeia pelo Procedimento por
Défice Excessivo. Défice esse que, segundo as previsões do FMI,
ficará “confortavelmente abaixo dos 3%”, o “nível mais baixo
em 42 anos de democracia”.
O FT sublinha ainda
que o desemprego passou dos 12,6% para cerca de 10%, tendo sido
criados 90 mil novos postos de trabalho, de acordo com as estimativas
do Governo. Também em relação ao investimento os primeiros receios
não se confirmaram: “Nem mesmo a pressão da esquerda para
reestruturar a dívida ou endurecer as leis laborais tem assustado as
grandes companhias estrangeiras incluindo a Volkswagen, a Continental
e a Bosch, que aumentaram o seu investimento”.
Costa conseguiu
atingir os actuais níveis de popularidade e resultados no consumo
privado devido, em grande parte, à reversão “das medidas de
austeridade durante o programa de ajustamento em 2011-2014. Agiu
rapidamente para recuperar os orçamentos do sector público, horário
laboral, férias e pensões estatais para os níveis pré-resgate",
escreve o FT.
No entanto, e
citando o economista-chefe da Berenberg, Holger Schmieding,
“infelizmente, esta é a forma errada para atrair investimento
suficiente para colocar a economia a crescer a um ritmo próximo de,
por exemplo, Espanha“, avisa o FT.
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Costa
confounds critics as Portuguese economy holds course
Concerns
remain but anti-austerity Socialist premier has outperformed
expectations
YESTERDAY by: Peter
Wise in Lisbon
When António Costa
was sworn in as prime minister of Portugal in November 2015,
opponents cast the Socialist leader as a reckless adventurer who had
won power by means of a diabolical pact with communists and the
radical left.
“I hope not to be
summoned back to a house in flames,” said Pedro Passos Coelho, the
outgoing centre-right prime minister who had steered Portugal through
a gruelling bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund.
As yet, there has
been no fire. A year later, Mr Costa enjoys opinion poll ratings of
which Europe’s other centre-left leaders can only dream. His
anti-austerity alliance has held firm and, in the view of Pedro Nuno
Santos, a government official, Portugal has become “an island of
stability” in a troubled world.
“We have shown
that an alternative [to austerity] is possible,” says the prime
minister. Anti-establishment parties such as Podemos in Spain sees Mr
Costa’s government as a model to emulate, while Jeremy Corbyn,
Britain’s opposition Labour party leader, has hailed it as the
beginning of “an anti-austerity coalition across Europe”.
Opponents remain
unconvinced. “I’m almost certain there will be another [debt]
crisis,” in Portugal, Mr Passos Coelho, now opposition leader, told
a conference last month. International creditors, financial markets
and rating agencies are also sceptical.
They fear Portugal’s
modest economic growth — forecast by the Bank of Portugal at 1.2
per cent for 2016 — is too low to sustain a public debt in excess
of 130 per cent of gross domestic product. Concerns about a fragile
banking sector beset by problem loans are also pushing up government
borrowing costs.
Yields on Portugal’s
benchmark 10-year government bonds neared 4 per cent last month when
the European Central Bank said it would scale back the amount of
government bonds it buys. Critics argue that debt, meagre growth and
weak banks leave the country highly vulnerable. One Lisbon economist
says: “Any shock — Italian banks, French elections — could
precipitate a crisis.”
Whatever these
misgivings, Mr Costa has undeniably outperformed initial forecasts
for his minority Socialist party government, which depends on the
parliamentary votes of the radical Left Bloc and hardline Communist
party. So high were expectations that this improbable partnership
would fail, the prime minister has already defied most critics merely
by surviving into a second year in office.
Along the way he has
seen through two budgets, approved by Brussels, and avoided the
threat of EU sanctions for running excessive fiscal deficits. The IMF
forecasts 2016’s deficit will fall comfortably below 3 per cent of
GDP, down from 4.4 per cent in 2015, the “lowest level in 42 years
of democracy”, as Mr Costa describes it, “and one of the best
results in southern Europe”.
On his watch
unemployment has fallen from 12.6 per cent to about 10 per cent and
more than 90,000 jobs have been created, according to government
estimates. Nor has an administration supported by hard-left parties
pressing for debt restructuring and tougher labour laws unnerved big
foreign companies including Volkswagen, Continental and Bosch,which
have increased investment in Portugal, or said they plan to do so,
since Mr Costa took office.
[Costa’s success
suggests that] even within the strict conditions of European monetary
union, there is more than one way to run a country
Ricardo Paes Mamede,
economics professor
“The fact that the
budget deficit is now under control, and that exports to the euro
area have been quite dynamic, show that the scepticism about the new
government was largely exaggerated,” says Ricardo Paes Mamede, a
Lisbon economics professor.
Mr Costa has
benefited from a change in attitudes towards harsh fiscal discipline.
“Given the political uncertainties in many countries, Europe has
chosen to put less emphasis on austerity than before,” says Holger
Schmieding, chief economist with Berenberg.
The prime minister
blames austerity policies for “keeping economies depressed and
societies divided” and insists that his pro-growth strategy is
compatible with the eurozone’s fiscal rules.
His success in
opinion polls and in lifting private consumption owes much to rolling
back austerity measures introduced during the 2011-2014 adjustment
programme. He has moved quickly to restore public sector wages,
working hours, holidays and state pensions to pre-bailout levels.
Labour market reforms have also been reversed.
Mr Schmieding warns:
“Unfortunately, this is exactly the wrong way to attract sufficient
inward investment to get closer to, say, Spanish rates of GDP
growth.”
According to the EU
and IMF, Mr Costa is achieving fiscal targets by freezing
intermediate public consumption in areas such as health and reining
back public investment. Critics fear this is playing down the much
bigger problem of public debt. “It’s like a family saying it only
spent €1,000 more than it earned, while seeing its bank debt go up
by €5,000,” said one academic.
Yet Mr Costa’s
initial successes, says Mr Paes Mamede, suggest that “even within
the strict conditions of European monetary union, there is more than
one way to run a country”.
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