De
reparar que nesta avaliação do impacto de BREXIT por País Portugal
não é sequer considerado . Simplesmente não existimos … Pobre
Portugal, esquecido por todos começando pelos próprios Portugueses
…
OVOODOCORVO
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How
Europe will break on Brexit
A
country-by-country look at what’s at stake elsewhere in Europe
after Britain’s referendum.
By TARA PALMERI
6/22/16, 5:28 AM CET
The whole world will
be watching Friday morning for fallout from Britain’s referendum on
EU membership.
A U.K. vote to leave
will almost certainly have serious consequences on everything from
financial markets to European policy decisions to political careers
to the stability of the bloc.
Politicians and
diplomats from across Europe told POLITICO they’re already bracing
for several scenarios, including the rise of Euroskeptic voices
within their own countries, specific trade losses if the U.K. leaves
the single market, and the departure of a free-market voice from the
EU table.
Here’s a look at
the Brexit stakes for countries across the bloc:
Neighbors, friends
and frenemies
Ireland
Top concern:
Economic impact
The only EU member
apart from Gibraltar that shares a land border with the U.K., Ireland
is the country with the most to lose from a Brexit. The €1.2
billion per week British-Irish trade relationship currently supports
about 400,000 jobs in the two countries. The Irish government has
been taking nothing for granted. Unlike the European Commission and
many other EU governments, Dublin has been openly preparing for the
possibility of a Brexit. “Obviously we will be the most affected of
the member states, so we will have a keener interest [in setting up
favorable relations with the U.K.] and a different perspective in
some of the areas than others would have,” Ireland’s Minister of
EU Affairs Dara Murphy told POLITICO. Murphy said that
re-establishing a border between Ireland the U.K. would be a
“negative step” — at least symbolically — in terms of
guaranteeing peace in Northern Ireland under an agreement built on
close relations between the two countries. “We don’t believe
there’s a threat to the peace process but… we feel any backward
step is a negative step,” Murphy said. He said he saw only one
potential upside for Ireland if Britain decides to leave: a possible
boost to Dublin if British financial institutions or other companies
relocated there in order to be based in the EU.
France
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
A founding member of
the EU club, France is also home to one of the strongest Euroskeptic
parties in Europe. That puts it in a tight spot regarding the British
referendum. Current polls show National Front leader Marine Le Pen
would make it past the first round of the 2017 presidential election
and into a runoff. General antipathy toward Brussels is also high in
France — a poll from Pew Research Center published earlier this
month showed French respondents had a lower opinion of the EU even
than Brits. If a Brexit happens, France is prepared to move quickly
to stop the spread of anti-EU sentiment at home and elsewhere in the
bloc. That, according to senior diplomats, means pushing for a
swiftly negotiated divorce from the U.K. — without any perks or
renegotiations. But there are other concerns for France. The country
has significant economic investment in the U.K., and more than
160,000 French citizens currently live in Britain. An estimated
400,000 British citizens live in France and could face losing their
EU rights. Politically, France may have no choice but to try to take
the lead with Germany and other core Europe countries to try to move
forward in a post-Brexit EU. There have already been discussions
between the Commission and top diplomats from France and Germany on
the issue, with a leaning toward more Europe in some areas like
security, and less Europe when it comes to EU laws that interfere
with daily life, according to sources.
‘Core’ Europe
Belgium
Top concern:
Economic impact
Belgium isn’t just
home to the major EU institutions; the U.K. is also one of its
biggest trading partners. A January 2016 study from ING bank found
Belgium to be among the EU countries most vulnerable to a Brexit in
terms of an impact on the balance of trade, along with Ireland,
Germany, and the Netherlands. “Anything that weakens the European
Union weakens Belgium,” said a Belgian official, who predicted the
impact would be “serious and severe.” Belgian Economy Minister
Kris Peeters announced this week that he had established a task force
to look into how the Belgian economy would cope with a Brexit.
Luxembourg
Top concern: Blow to
EU morale
As one of the
founding members of the European Union, the Grand Duchy will likely
be shaken by a British blow to the EU project, even if a Brexit turns
out to be good for business as U.K. financial companies decide to
open up operations in one of Europe’s notorious tax havens. Prime
Minister Xavier Bettel has expressed concerns that the EU made too
many concessions to the U.K. to try to avoid a Brexit, at the expense
of the union’s principles guaranteeing freedom movement of people
and labor. But it’s unlikely Luxembourg would push for punitive
measures against Britain if it votes to leave.
Netherlands
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
Anti-EU forces in
the Netherlands already made waves in April, when they helped lead
opposition in a referendum on an EU agreement with Ukraine that was
mainly seen as a message against European policy. A Brexit would
likely further invigorate Euroskeptics in the country, and give the
right-wing Freedom Party — with the support of 18 percent of the
electorate in opinion polls — the push it needs to call for a
referendum on membership. The Netherlands is generally considered a
U.K. ally, voting together on liberal economic policies. Dutch Prime
Minister Mark Rutte linked the two at an event in The Hague last
week, saying: “Britain is a free market economy facing outward,
just like the Netherlands. We are both seafaring nations, used to
trading and working with open borders. It’s of importance that a
country with that kind of makeup remains.”
Germany
Top concern: Blow to
EU morale
Although there will
be a strong hit to morale and perhaps even belief in the European
Union dream, Germany isn’t likely to linger on the bad news coming
out of a Brexit. Senior EU diplomats said Berlin will seek to
maintain its strong economic relationship with the U.K., a major
export market and home to many German business operations. Despite
significant support for the populist Alternative for Germany party in
opinion polls, there’s little danger of referendum contagion
affecting most Germans, who still back Europe. But Brexit could have
a serious effect on Germany’s role as prime mover in the bloc. It
would remove the U.K. as a traditional counterweight to — or,
sometimes, intermediary between — France and Germany on key
European issues. Yes, a Brexit could further boost Berlin’s already
strong voice at the EU Council table, where the U.K. was the country
the least likely to vote with Germany, according to VoteWatch Europe.
But there’s a chance that could provoke a backlash. “The danger
is that Germany will be too strong and the other countries will line
up behind [France] against Germany,” said a senior EU diplomat.
“Germany doesn’t want to be too strong, they want to work with
strong countries and if France is economically weak that’s a
problem.”
Central and eastern
bloc
Czech Republic
Top concern:
Economic impact
Another country
where Brussels’ handling of the migration crisis is fueling
Euroskepticism (the Communist KSCM party had the support of 14
percent of the electorate in a poll this spring) and where forces on
the political Left and Right are pushing for a referendum on EU
membership. The Czech Republic generally sees eye-to-eye with the
U.K. on economic issues and seems inclined to try to make the split
amicable. “Should the British people decide to leave, our priority
will be to limit the negative consequences on the EU economy and make
the exit as orderly as possible,” Tomas Prouza, the Czech state
secretary for EU affairs, wrote in an e-mail to POLITICO. “I am
sure [the EU] would still be able to coordinate with the U.K. on many
topics of foreign policy and through NATO and strengthened EU-NATO
cooperation also on military aspects of foreign policy.” But Prouza
underlined a key concern of many Eastern European members when he
said that if the U.K. wants to stay in the single market it needs to
respect the free movement of workers — the very thing Brexit
supporters are trying to stop.
Poland
Top concern:
Citizens in U.K.
Brexit could have a
huge impact on Polish politics and its economy: Around 1 million
Polish currently live and work in the U.K., and some fear they will
have to return home looking for employment. A survey taken last week
by Polish pollster IBRiS found that if there is a Brexit vote, 47
percent of Poles living in Britain would want to stay in the U.K.,
though 26 percent would return to Poland if their efforts to stay
failed. “People are saying they are trying to get other
citizenships,” said a Polish diplomat. “People living in the U.K.
are worried that they will have to revert to the times before they
were a part of the EU.” Conscious of those ties, EU diplomats said
Warsaw will want to go easy when negotiating new trade relationships
with the U.K., and would possibly push for a special or associate
relationship with the EU in exchange for rights for its citizens
still living in Britain. The upside of a Brexit for Poland is that it
would not only divert the Commission’s attention from its rule of
law probe into Poland’s government, but also make it less likely
Brussels would want to be seen pushing another member country around.
“Naturally, it would be in line with the Polish position to want
less Europe, hand over more power to the governments,” the diplomat
said, adding that there is a “sense of denial” about the
possibility of a Brexit and fear that it would force a retrenchment
of core Europe nations at the expense of Poland and other eastern
members.
Slovakia
Top concern:
Citizens in U.K.
A recent
Eurobarometer survey showed that 75 percent of Slovaks are happy with
their place in the EU, so there’s not a great deal concern about
rising Euroskepticism here after a Brexit. But the country will push
to make sure that its 90,000 citizens living in the U.K. won’t be
abandoned if Britain leaves the EU. “EU citizens living and working
in the U.K. have acquired certain legitimate rights, while
contributing to the U.K.’s economy, and we believe that these
rights will be maintained,” said Peter Javorcik, Slovakia’s
ambassador to the EU, in an e-mail.
Hungary
Top concern: Loss of
an ally
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A Brexit could
embolden Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, who has criticized EU
policies — especially its proposals for dealing with the migration
crisis — his calling card for years. Orbán even used the coming
Brexit referendum as an opening to push his own national vote on
whether to accept asylum-seekers. But a U.K. split would also cost
him an ally at the summit table; he and British Prime Minister David
Cameron have often led the charge in pushing back against EU
proposals, and were the only two leaders to oppose the appointment of
Jean-Claude Juncker as Commission president. Orbán has already given
a clear signal he doesn’t want to lose the U.K., saying last week
he would personally campaign against Brexit. Hungarian Foreign
Affairs Minister Péter Szijjarto said a British withdrawal from the
EU would be a major loss both politically and economically to his
country. “Hungary shares many points of view with the U.K. on the
question of European integration, such as the importance of
sovereignty and on the responsibility of national parliaments,” he
said. “It is important that this type of thinking is represented by
a strong player within the EU.”
Austria
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
The right-wing
Freedom Party of Austria came very close to winning the Austrian
presidency last month, a warning sign that the country is still
sensitive ground for a populist, anti-EU revolt following a Brexit.
Party leader Harald Vilimsky has already called for Austria to hold
its own referendum on EU membership.
Lithuania
Top concern:
Citizens in U.K.
The number one
priority for the Baltic country in a post-Brexit EU is the fate of
its 200,000 citizens currently living in the U.K. “There will be
uncertainty for those that have lived there for less than five
years,” Linas Antanas Linkevičius, Lithuanian minister of foreign
affairs, told POLITICO. But he said the government has a message for
Lithuanians in Britain worried about what might happen to them: “We
are inviting all of them to come back. Frankly speaking, we had 3.5
million people, now we have 3 million…I’m not saying that jobs
are waiting but [the diaspora] was recent so it’s not a big
difference.”
Romania
Top concern:
Citizens in U.K.
Bucharest will push
for Romanian workers to have the right to stay in the U.K. after a
Brexit. “The free movement of workers needs to stay the same,” a
Romanian diplomat said. There’s a lot of British investment in
Romania, so there’s concern about its future economic health. “We
would call for a special relationship for the U.K. with the EU,”
the diplomat said. “We would like to maintain the same privileges
as if the U.K. was still a member state.”
The Northern
dimension
Finland
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
Government officials
have some concern that the right-wing Finns party would be emboldened
by a Brexit. That could lead to a split in the governing coalition,
which includes pro-EU and anti-EU members. But in the past year, the
Finns have lost over half of their base of support, according to a
Finnish diplomat, so the anxiety isn’t intense. Finland is
otherwise a strong U.K. ally on EU matters, with similar interests in
competitiveness, free trade, market economics, better regulation and
good governance. The country’s border with Russia means it’s keen
on maintaining security cooperation with the U.K.
Sweden
Top concern: Loss of
an ally
The U.K. is Sweden’s
number-one ally in the EU’s Council of Ministers, voting together
nearly 89 percent of the time, according to data from VoteWatch
Europe. “For us, it would be a big loss if the U.K. were to leave,”
said Anders Ahnlid, Sweden’s EU ambassador. “Our interests
coincide on how the internal market should be reformed and marketed.
We share the same positions on external trade and investment.”
Pointing to the significant amount of trade between the countries,
Ahnlid said it would be important for the EU to hash out an exit deal
with the U.K. “as fast as possible” but without giving Britain a
free ride. “The U.K. can’t have the same link to the single
market as it does today,” Ahnlid said. The Euroskeptic Swedish
Democrats party — polling at 16 percent — is calling for a
referendum on migration, which has been a controversial issue in the
country. Many fear a Brexit could fuel their demands.
Denmark
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
Another country that
votes often with the U.K. on economic liberal principles is
struggling with its own Euroskeptic movements. The Danish People’s
Party at 17 percent is pushing for its own referendum on EU
membership, which could be fueled by a Brexit. It has already grown
to be the largest party in the Danish parliament. Like the U.K.,
Denmark has several key opt-outs from EU policies, including the
single currency and justice and home affairs issues.
Southern Europe
Italy
Top concern: Rise of
Euroskepticism
While Brexit won’t
do specific damage to Italy, it could prompt a serious debate on the
euro, given its unpopularity following the financial crisis. Italy
has Euroskeptic parties on the Right (Northern League) and Left (5
Star Movement). “Should the Leave option succeed, populists or
Euroskeptics in other member states may try to replicate the
referendum, this may happen in Italy as well as other countries, even
in non-euro countries,” said Roberto Basso, a spokesperson for the
Italian finance ministry. But he said Italy would take a hard line on
the benefits the U.K. could win outside of the EU club. “If you
decide to exit the club you cannot think that staying out is the same
as saying inside,” Basso said.
Malta
Top concern:
Economic impact
The tiny island
nation, a former British colony, worries that its tourism industry
could be hit if a Brexit increases airfares around the EU. Trade with
the U.K. made up 7.8 percent of Malta’s GDP in 2013 and links to
U.K. banks are crucial to its economy. Maltese Prime Minister Joseph
Muscat has said Brexit could nevertheless be an opportunity for his
English-speaking country as British companies that would want to keep
a foothold in the EU could relocate there. “There are many who
consider that with Brexit there may be more British fund managers who
may be attracted to Malta as this would still be in the EU,” said a
high-ranking Maltese official.
Greece
Top concern:
Economic impact
The Brexit debate
has had an indirect benefit for the debt-stricken nation, which was
able to get swift approval from its creditors, including the other
eurozone members, for loan extensions so as not to draw attention to
Europe’s financial woes. But after a Brexit, diplomats warn that
the rest of the eurozone may not be willing to show as much
flexibility on Greek debt issues, even if eurozone members would be
emboldened to integrate fiscal policy further without the threat of
London trying to apply pressure from outside.
Spain
Top concern:
Political upheaval
There’s fear a
Brexit could give momentum to the region of Catalonia in its drive to
split from Spain — especially if a Leave vote leads Scotland to
hold another referendum on quitting the U.K. Another consideration
for Spain is its own border with the U.K., on the southern tip of the
Iberian peninsula: the territory of Gibraltar. This is one corner of
the U.K. where people clearly support staying in the EU out of fear
that a Brexit would lead Spain to tighten border controls and that it
would lose its EU-negotiated favorable tax rates. Thousands of
Spaniards cross the frontier every day to work. Spain has said that
in the event of a Brexit it will allow for market access as long as
the U.K. offers joint sovereignty over the Rock — which is not
likely to happen.
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