How
Turkey held the EU for ransom
Accepting
the Turkish terms on migration raise fears of a dangerous precedent.
Shopping
in a Turkish bazaar is never wise for the novice.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 3/8/16, 5:25 AM CET
Shopping
in a Turkish bazaar is never wise for the novice.
The EU learned that
lesson the hard way when it discovered the carefully crafted refugee
deal it believed it had sold to Turkish leaders in the run-up to
Monday’s summit turned out to be little more than the beginning of
the negotiation.
Turkey made Europe a
counter offer early Monday that six months ago would have prompted EU
negotiators to get up and walk out. To European eyes, the proposal
Ankara put on the table read more like a ransom note: €3 billion in
refugee aid in addition to the €3 billion already pledged,
full-scale visa liberalization for Turkish citizens in the EU by
June, an acceleration of Turkey’s application to join the bloc as
well as a pledge to resettle many of the Syrian refugees Turkey takes
in.
Turkey’s message
to Europe was clear: You need us more than we need you.
That Europe is not
just considering the Turkish proposal, but is likely to end up
accepting most, if not all of it, is testament to the desperation of
the Union and its largest member, Germany, to secure a deal to limit
the flow of refugees and end a crisis that is testing EU solidarity
like nothing in its history.
Angela Merkel, who
sees a sweeping agreement with Turkey as the only viable way out of
the quagmire, tried into the early hours of Tuesday to cajole her
fellow leaders into accepting the framework. In the end, they agreed
to delay a decision until the next regular EU summit, scheduled for
next week.
What worried some in
the room is that accepting the Turkish terms would set a dangerous
precedent, signaling that the bloc’s core democratic principles are
up for sale. Giving Ankara what it wants, just as President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan has been tightening his grip on power, turning Turkey
into what many consider a dictatorship, could do irreparable harm to
the EU’s credibility, critics argue.
And yet for Europe,
the likely alternative — the collapse of Europe’s open borders
and public trust in its institutions — would be even worse.
Speaking after the
summit, Merkel stressed that given the war in Syria and the
“geostrategic” situation, a deal with Turkey is “absolutely in
Europe’s interest.”
Convincing the rest
of Europe won’t be easy.
Cooperation, not
sanctions
It was only on
Friday that Turkish authorities seized control of the country’s
largest newspaper, Zaman, dispersing protestors with tear gas. Such
an action would normally prompt censure from Brussels.
Europe’s dry
official commentary at the end of the summit: “The EU heads of
state or government also discussed with the Turkish prime minister
the situation of the media in Turkey.”
Instead of weighing
sanctions, the EU is considering accelerating Turkey’s negotiations
for EU membership. That process, which has been stalled for years,
normally requires a candidate country meet basic standards on
everything from the independence of its judiciary to press freedom.
Acceding to Turkey’s demand that the EU open talks in five key
areas linked to its membership bid would force the Union to ignore
Turkey’s record on human rights, intimidation of the media and
manipulation of the judiciary.
“We certainly can
do all of that. The only question is what it will do to the EU,”
one official involved in the deliberations said.
The irony is that
Erdoğan likely has little intention of joining the EU. Membership in
the EU is simply not compatible with his strongman style. But by
forcing European countries to invite Turkey back to the table, he can
show his people that Turkey is still accepted by the West and slap
down domestic critics who say otherwise. Winning visa-free travel to
Europe would offer further affirmation of Turkey’s place in the
first world.
European officials
tried to sell the summit as a success, arguing that the commitments
Turkey was willing to make in terms of taking back refugees and
helping to shut down human smuggling would amount to a major
“breakthrough.”
“This is a real
game-changer,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
said afterwards. “We will make clear that the only viable way to
come to Europe is through legal channels.”
In some respects,
Turkey’s new offer goes further than the original plan it had
discussed with the EU, particularly concerning the numbers of
refugees Ankara would take back and the measures it would adopt to
deter human smuggling.
But the price is
higher than anyone in Brussels thought they’d have to pay.
Best laid plans
Just last week, a
parade of European officials, led by Council President Donald Tusk,
visited Turkey to lay the groundwork for a deal.
Under his blueprint,
Turkey would have agreed to take back refugees intercepted in the
Aegean, including Syrians, as well as some of the refugees now
stranded in Greece. In return, the EU would release more of the €3
billion in aid it pledged last fall to help Turkey take care of the
refugees.
Berlin believed that
the deal, combined with other recent measures, such as a beefing up
of coast guard patrols and the involvement of NATO ships in the
effort, would help choke the flow of refugees.
EU leaders take new
stab at stemming migration, with hopes on Turkey
Tusk’s entourage
was encouraged by the progress they made. After months of foot
dragging on the so-called EU-Turkey Action Plan, the Turks were
finally moving forward.
The Europeans
concluded Erdoğan had come around because he needed EU support in
his confrontation with Russia and in dealing with the broader
security challenges Turkey faces in the Middle East.
“For the first
time since the beginning of the migration crisis, I can see a
European consensus emerging,” Tusk tweeted after meeting Erdogan,
the final stop in a weeklong tour of the Balkans.
The first sign the
EU’s read on Turkey was off the mark came just minutes after Tusk’s
plane departed Istanbul. Late Friday, a Turkish court approved the
government’s seizure of the Zaman newspaper. Shortly thereafter,
riot police moved in.
Caught off guard,
Europe’s leaders said little about the crackdown for the next 48
hours, beyond the usual boilerplate about the importance of a free
press.
Behind the scenes,
officials worried that any criticism of Erdoğan could derail the
deal ahead of Monday’s summit. They suspected the move against
Zaman was a provocation meant to show Europe who was in control.
What the Europeans
didn’t know was that the deal they thought they had was already
dead.
A surprise at dinner
Turkish Prime
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu invited Merkel for dinner at the Turkish
embassy in Brussels Sunday evening. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte,
whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, also attended.
The dinner was set
to prepare for the next day’s summit. But instead of ironing out
the details of what had been negotiated over the previous weeks,
Davutoğlu dropped a bombshell.
Turkey, he told
them, had a new set of demands. Over the next several hours, the
three discussed Ankara’s new conditions.
Merkel quickly
realized it would be impossible to reach a deal at Monday’s summit,
given the scope of the deal Davutoğlu had put on the table.
On Monday morning,
Merkel arrived early to the Council headquarters to meet with other
leaders. The focus turned to damage control.
The schedule called
for lunch with Turkey followed by a meeting of the EU-28 to work out
the final details of an agreement. The Turkish move threw the summit
into disarray. **The meeting with the Turks lasted for hours. Dinner
was announced only to be canceled so leaders could hammer out a
mealy-mouthed statement. The highlight: “We need to break the link
between getting in a boat and getting settlement in Europe.” **
Merkel, who faces a
string of important regional elections in Germany on Sunday, had
hoped to leave Brussels with a solid deal she could present to an
electorate increasingly skeptical of her government’s handling of
the crisis.
Instead, all she can
offer them is a vague promise that a comprehensive agreement with
Turkey is near.
Other EU leaders,
meanwhile, were shocked. Tusk complained that all his efforts over
the past week had been for nothing.
Some national
delegations blamed the Germans for bungling the negotiations with
Turkey by allowing Davutoğlu the opportunity to recut the deal.
Merkel was at pains
after the summit to put a positive spin on the day’s events.
“This Turkish
proposal is a breakthrough if realized,” she insisted.
“Yes, this has
made things more difficult … But I honestly think its better to
have such a proposal now than not at all.”
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário