segunda-feira, 26 de outubro de 2015

French Socialist MP predicts Le Pen presidency


French Socialist MP predicts Le Pen presidency

Ten years after French riots, Socialist MP says Le Pen could win in 2017.

By NICHOLAS VINOCUR 10/26/15, 8:28 PM CET

Could French far-right leader Marine Le Pen win the 2017 presidential race?

Malek Boutih, a French MP from President François Hollande’s ruling Socialist Party, certainly thinks so.

He said as much during an interview with BFMTV over the weekend, prompting angry reactions from several colleagues. His comments were ill-timed for the Socialists, coming just as the government was unveiling a package of measures aimed at improving life in the banlieues, or suburbs, 10 years after a wave of riots across France.

“I don’t dare to say it but I think that 2017 [the presidential election] is a bit of a done deal,” Boutih, who is in charge of social affairs for the Socialists, told BFMTV Sunday.

“My fear is not that the Left will lose, it’s that the Republic will lose in 2017. In the current state of things, I don’t see how Marine Le Pen cannot win the presidential [election].”

In public, Socialists tend to argue that if Hollande chooses to run for reelection in 2017, he has a chance of winning. Despite the president’s popularity being at a record low level, Socialists argue he could still win more votes than either Sarkozy or Le Pen, both highly divisive figures.

In private, the message is different. Some Socialists say that National Front leader Le Pen is “useful” to Hollande, because the more popular she gets, the more voters she will steal from the center-right. The risk of her actually winning a final runoff with an absolute majority, they argue, remains very slim.

Opinion polls support that analysis. On Sunday, a poll in the JDD weekly newspaper found that nearly two-thirds of respondents actively rejected a Le Pen candidacy, with just 16 percent having made up their mind to back her.

Scare tactics?

Boutih’s comments may have be intended to frighten Socialist supporters into voting in regional elections in December. Hollande’s party is heading for serious losses, with Le Pen and her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, both likely to win regional council presidencies from the Socialists.

That hasn’t stopped some Socialists from making clear their displeasure at Boutih.

“I disapprove of the approach that plays too heavily on fear of the FN, which is dangerous and will definitely have a boomerang effect,” said Gaetan Gorce, a Socialist senator.

Furthermore, the timing of Boutih’s statement — the 10-year anniversary of urban riots that rocked France in 2005 and forced then-president Jacques Chirac to call a state of emergency — is especially bad for the government.

Boutih, who wrote a controversial report last summer on the spread of radical Islam in housing projects, argued that in spite of investments worth nearly €100 billion to renovate dilapidated housing projects across the country, conditions had actually worsened in the banlieues over the past decade. Now, he argued, the housing projects were a breeding ground for terrorism.

“We have been on a slide for several years which leads us toward something irreparable because now, unfortunately, these neighborhoods produce terrorists,” said Boutih. “Ten years later, these are no longer rioters, they are terrorists.”

His message goes against against efforts by Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls to reassert the government’s voice in the banlieues, where the National Front has started to hunt for votes.

Valls on Monday announced a series of measures aimed at improving security in the banlieues, including vest-mounted cameras for police, better allocation of social housing, and a campaign against discrimination in hiring.

It may be too little, too late. Many Muslim officials in the neighborhoods complain that the Socialist Party failed to heed their interests following Hollande’s election in 2012, choosing instead to promote socially liberal policies such as gay marriage. When Hollande visited La Courneuve last week, a tough neighborhood close to Paris with a large migrant population, he was booed by a crowd of locals.

On a visit to a business incubator, Hollande said that there was “no neighborhood lost to the Republic.”

Boutih disagreed. “That’s false. The Republic is in conflict with some neighborhoods,” he said.

Authors:


Nicholas Vinocur  

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