The Guardian view on Donald Trump: the joker in the pack

 DONALD TRUMP
"Rodeo Drive"
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The Guardian view on Donald Trump: the joker in the pack

Editorial / http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/18/the-guardian-view-on-donald-trump-the-joker-in-the-pack

The Republican establishment is looking on in horror as the party takes the ultimate non-politician to its heart

The candyfloss-type arrangement that sits atop Donald Trump’s pate has been compared to many things: a furry rodent, a caterpillar, rogue tumbleweed. But the one thing his combover is rarely mistaken for is hair. So ingrained are the doubts that a few weeks ago he invited a supporter on stage in South Carolina to check it. As such it stands as the most conspicuous emblem of his outsized personality: brazen, ostentatious and barely credible.

For most of the summer Mr Trump’s candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination has been understood in the same way. Speculations regarding the his motivation for standing – a lust for the limelight, an elevation of his brand, unrestrained egomania – were many. But nobody (possibly not even himself) took it seriously.

His initial popularity surprised many, but concerned few. In such a crowded field, name recognition and a penchant for the outrageous counts for a lot. Low on policy, experience, self-awareness and charm, and high on bluster, logorrhoea, invective and misogyny, conventional wisdom was that his bubble would burst. Instead it has kept rising. Mr Trump has been ahead in the polls for two straight months, usually with double-digit leads as high as 16%. A few recent polls even suggest he could win in a direct contest with the most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton.

So it is that over the last few weeks America’s media and political classes have been jolted upright by the realisation that whatever it looks like, Mr Trump’s candidacy, like his hair, is for real. To the horror of the Republican party establishment and Wall Street funders, he has a serious shot at becoming the nominee. Rank-and-file Republicans believe he can be president: two-thirds of them say they would be “enthusiastic” or “satisfied” if he were the party nominee. Moreover, the more they see of him the more they like. In mid-June, shortly before he announced his candidacy, 20% of Republicans had a favourable impression of him. Since then he has insulted women, Mexicans, immigrants, journalists, a Republican war veteran and the last Republican president. Today his favourability ratings are 60%.

Mr Trump is the most audacious, bizarre and arguably authentic expression of the Tea-Party mood that captured the right’s imagination a few years ago. Incoherent in his principles – in 2009 he was a Democrat who supported gun control, universal healthcare and abortion rights – and incandescent in his rage, he channels the frustrations of a section of white America nostalgic for a return to their local privileges and global status – a time before social mobility stalled, wages stagnated and when jobs were secure. Xenophobic – he’s accused Mexico of sending “rapists” and “criminals” over the border; and isolationist – “China only undercuts America because it cheats”, he speaks in full-throated tirades to the those who feel forgotten against the disorienting effects of globalisation. His sexist sleights are couched as a middle finger to “political correctness”.

Thus far, the standard laws of politics have not applied to Mr Trump. When committing what most would consider campaign-ending gaffes – he put one debate moderator’s tough questioning down to her menstrual cycle – he not only doesn’t apologise, he goes on the attack. As such he is the consummate anti-politician – to his growing number of admirers his rough edges do not diminish him before more experienced politicians, but distinguishes him from the political elites they so despise.

His candidacy has already made an impact. His inflammatory comments and incendiary behaviour have sucked much of the oxygen from other candidates. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker – once championed by the Conservative establishment – is struggling to gain any traction and Jeb Bush, still the best-funded and bookies’ favourite, has failed to break through. His comments about immigration may have tarnished the Republican brand in the eyes of many Latinos, a growing constituency they can ill afford to further alienate. At first, few candidates would take him on; now they are lining up to take a swing. In this week’s debate, Carly Fiorina, the only woman in the race, faced him down, slamming his remarks about her personal appearance and questioning his business record. But while it’s been beneficial to her, given his ability to deflect criticism, it won’t necessarily do him harm.

It’s early days yet and Republicans are notoriously fickle. At this stage in the race for the 2012 nomination the front-runner was Rick Perry. Within a few weeks he was down to single figures. The likelihood remains that Mr Trump will trip over the foot he keeps putting in his mouth and fall flat on his face. Over the last month he has been mentioned less on television and radio and, compared to other candidates, he is taking up less space on Twitter.

But that can no longer be considered a certainty. The man himself may be a joke, but his candidacy can no longer viewed as such. Thanks in no small part to the copious amounts of hot air Mr Trump keeps exhaling, his bubble may yet rise further.