Catalan
election puts Spanish unity on the line
The
wealthy region is pushing for independence from Madrid.
By HANS VON DER
BURCHARD 9/25/15, 8:23 PM CET Updated 9/25/15, 10:52 PM CET
Catalonia votes
Sunday in what was meant to be a routine regional election but has
turned into a referendum on independence that has infuriated the
Spanish government and prompted a confused response in Brussels.
Tensions between
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Catalonia — one of the
richest and most industrialized of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions —
have heightened since the constitutional court scrapped elements of
Catalonia’s autonomous statute in 2010.
On September 11,
nearly 1.5 million people demonstrated in Barcelona in favor of
independence and the head of Catalonia’s autonomous government,
Artur Mas, is pushing for separation from Madrid.
“Every step they
have taken […] to create a state structure has been analyzed and
contested by this government. And we will continue to do so,”
Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría said
Friday.
A victory would give
Mas a mandate to negotiate Catalonia’s independence with the
Spanish government, the EU and other international organizations, he
argues. In a 2014 referendum on independence — which Spain’s
constitutional court ruled illegal, making it non-binding — about
80 percent voted in favor of breaking with Spain.
To pursue his dream
of independence, Mas will need an absolute majority of 68 seats in
the Catalan parliament, which has 135 seats in total. Latest polls
predict a close race, with the pro-independence Junts pel sí
(Together for a Yes) a hair’s breadth from their goal with 65-67
seats, according to surveys by Metroscopia and El Mundo.
But Mas, who merged
his Democratic Convergence of Catalonia with the like-minded
Republican Left of Catalonia, Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left
Movement (MES) to form Junts pel sí in July, has the option of
forming a coalition with the left-wing CUP party, which is also in
favor of independence and is projected to win between 9 and 11 seats.
Rajoy has based his
party’s referendum campaign on fomenting fears about the future of
the region without Spain, arguing for example that an independent
Catalonia could not stay in the EU.
“What would happen
with the pensions, with the financial entities, the bank deposits,
the money?” he said in a radio interview Tuesday, warning of the
risk of instability.
On Thursday, his
minister for agriculture Isabel García Tejerina upped the ante by
saying an independent Catalonia would lose €430 million per year in
EU subsidies.
Viable state
The crucial question
for the Catalans is whether an independent Catalonia could remain in
the euro, and whether it could become the European Union’s 29th
member state.
A few days ahead of
the vote, these questions caused confusion at the European
Commission.
Answering a written
question if a declaration of independence would be recognized by
Brussels, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker answered with a
“no comment” in English — but issued a Spanish text which said:
“The determination of a member state’s territory can only be
appointed by national constitutional law and not the decision of an
autonomous parliament.”
The Commission later
described this inconsistency as a “human error” and said only the
English-language text counted. The Catalan government has demanded an
investigations into what it called a case of “alleged
manipulation.”
“We have a viable
economy and we are a regular contributor to EU funds” – Amadeu
Altafaj, Catalan representative to the EU.
Barcelona argues
that it fulfils all the criteria for EU membership.
“We have a viable
economy, with 112 percent of the EU’s average economic output, and
we are a regular contributor to EU funds,” Amadeu Altafaj, the
Catalan government’s permanent representative to the EU, said to
POLITICO.
The autonomous
government published a white paper last year, describing a possible
path for the transition to an independent state. It would be “fully
committed to the European values,” Altafaj said, and engage in
responsibilities like refugee relocation.
“We need to sit
down with the Spanish government and the European institutions to
talk and negotiate,” Mas said earlier this month.
While Rajoy
repeatedly calls an independence “impossible,” Mas’ government
hopes to see him vacate his job in Madrid soon.
In December, Spain
holds national elections, and the signs are not good for the main
established parties. In regional and communal elections across much
of Spain in May, Rajoy’s conservative Partido Popular and the main
opposition Socialist Worker’s Party both lost a huge share of the
vote.
Two newcomers, the
left-wing Podemos and the center-right Ciudadanos, are on the rise.
Although both parties want to avoid Spain splitting up, Podemos
leader Pablo Iglesias has said he recognizes Catalonia’s right to
self-determination.
“We hope that the
next government will engage in constructive discussions, but we also
expect more mobilization on the European level,” Altafaj said. “Our
aim is to complete the independence process within the next 18
months.”
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